SO OK TRADING’S INSIGHT: Copper – The Heart of Future Industry and Technology, Transforming the Global Economy
SO OK TRADING’S INSIGHT: Copper – The Strategic Raw Material of the New Global Industry
Copper was once regarded merely as an “industrial metal” that moved with the economic cycle. Today, it has been elevated to a strategic commodity, playing a crucial role in the transition toward a future shaped by clean energy, electric vehicles, and advanced digital technologies. Global copper demand is projected to rise by more than 40% by 2040, reflecting a major structural shift in the metals market.
Demand Drivers
AI Data Centers: The rapid growth of AI and supercomputing is driving demand for high-purity copper busbars and cooling pipes.
Electric Vehicles (EVs): EVs use 3–4 times more copper than combustion-engine cars, across batteries, motors, and wiring systems.
Renewable Energy: Solar grids, wind turbines, and energy storage systems all rely heavily on copper for power transmission.
Market Structure and Price Outlook (2025–2030)
2025: Average price $9,000–$12,000, with early signs of supply shortages.
2026: Price range $12,000–$14,800, copper recognized as a strategic metal.
2027–2030: Prices expected to exceed $16,000, entering a long-term bull market.
Risks to Watch
Global economic recession
Geopolitical conflicts
Aluminum substitution to reduce costs
Shifts in Industrial Nations
U.S. & Europe: Accelerating stockpiling of refined copper and scrap copper.
Grid Modernization: Heavy investment in HVDC transmission and offshore wind infrastructure.
AI Data Centers: Emerging as a new demand driver, replacing traditional industries.
Circular Economy and Recycling
Developed nations are pushing copper recycling to reduce imports and cut carbon emissions. The World Resources Institute (WRI) projects recycling rates will more than double.
Geopolitics and Trade Wars
U.S. & Europe: Tariffs on copper and clean tech imports from China, alongside CBAM implementation.
China: Redirecting exports to non-aligned nations and ASEAN.
Result: A dual-pricing system (Premium) between Western and Chinese markets.
AI Data Centers: A New Supply Chain Bottleneck
High-purity copper busbars and liquid cooling systems in demand.
Limited midstream processing plants → longer lead times.
Competition for premium-grade copper among AI, EV, and ESS sectors.
Thailand’s Opportunities and Challenges
China Plus One: Chinese and Taiwanese firms relocating PCB and EV parts production to Thailand.
Opportunities: Thailand can upgrade into precision copper tube and copper sheet production for batteries.
Challenges: With no domestic copper mines, Thailand relies entirely on imports and must accelerate ESG and traceability standards to remain competitive globally.
China: The World’s Largest Copper Consumer
EVs in China use 80–120 kg of copper per car, 4–6 times more than ICE vehicles.
Intense competition → Cost reduction trends through aluminum substitution and hairpin winding.
Charging Infrastructure: Each charging station uses an average of 6.8 kg of copper, with DC fast chargers requiring up to 60 kg.
By 2030: Renewable energy expected to account for 26% of China’s copper consumption.
Conclusion
Copper is becoming the “heart of the modern economy”, connecting AI, EVs, renewable energy, and global infrastructure. Prices are set to rise steadily due to structural supply deficits, while Thailand and ASEAN gain new opportunities from China’s production relocation. If Thailand can enhance ESG compliance and production capabilities, it will emerge as a key player in the global copper supply chain.
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