“Copper & Aluminum Scrap: Urban Mining of the Future — SO OK TRADING’s Global Strategic Metals Outlook 2026–2030, When Scrap Becomes the World’s Treasure and the Driving Force of the Net Zero Era”
Copper & Aluminum Scrap Market Outlook 2026–2030
SO OK TRADING : October 25, 2026
The world is entering the era of the “Strategic Metals Supercycle” (Copper Supercycle). Demand for metals is soaring, driven by clean energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and AI infrastructure, while new mines fail to keep pace. Scrap metal is no longer mere waste—it has become a strategic resource that nations are eager to stockpile.
Copper Scrap Outlook
Global Prices: Expected to remain elevated, averaging USD 12,500–16,000/ton until 2033
Thailand Market: High-grade copper scrap trades at THB 270–438/kg. Thai smelters increasingly rely on recycling to cut costs and avoid import tariffs
Key Drivers
Expansion of data centers and power grids
Rising demand from EVs and AI infrastructure
Declining copper output from Chile and Peru mines
Impact Global smelters compete fiercely for copper scrap, narrowing price discounts. Buyers are willing to pay higher premiums to secure high-grade material.
Major Regions Asia-Pacific dominates imports with 76% share, led by China and India.
Risks Intensifying competition and resource nationalism may restrict copper scrap exports.
Aluminum Scrap Outlook
Global Market Size: USD 56.7 billion (2026) → USD 91.4 billion (2034), CAGR 6–10%
Growth Drivers
Recycling saves up to 95% of energy compared to primary production
EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) fully enforced → global factories shift to aluminum scrap
Automakers adopt post-consumer scrap to reduce Scope 3 emissions
AI sorting and X-ray technology deliver purity close to virgin aluminum
U.S. imposes 50% tariff on Chinese aluminum → scrap flows into ASEAN (Thailand/Malaysia) for low-carbon ingot production and re-export
Structural Comparison
Copper Scrap: Structurally scarce due to insufficient mine supply. EV and AI demand make it a “precious treasure” fiercely contested by smelters.
Aluminum Scrap: The metal of sustainability. A “green alternative material” aligned with Net Zero and CBAM, cutting energy and carbon costs dramatically.
Global Financial Institutions’ Perspectives
Goldman Sachs & Citi: Warn of the largest pure copper shortage in a decade → smelters must turn to scrap
Macquarie: Scrap discounts at historic lows as buyers pay more for high-grade copper
Morgan Stanley & BofA: Automakers accelerate use of old aluminum scrap to reduce Scope 3 emissions and achieve Net Zero
UBS: ASEAN, especially Thailand and Malaysia, emerging as key hubs for low-carbon ingot production from Western scrap inflows
CBAM Impact on Thai Smelters
With EU CBAM now fully implemented, smelters relying on raw ore face steep tariff barriers. Thai smelters using recycled scrap gain a golden opportunity to produce low-carbon metals for export to Europe and global markets.
✨ Conclusion
Copper scrap is the “expensive treasure” powering electricity and AI industries
Aluminum scrap is the “green material of sustainability” meeting Net Zero and global environmental regulations
Both are being elevated from waste to “urban mining”, reshaping the global metals supply chain in this decade.
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