“Copper Supercycle 2026–2030: The Strategic Metal Driving a New World — From EVs to Data Centers”

 Copper Price Outlook: Global & Thailand 2026–2030
SO OK TRADING | July 21, 2026

Global Market Overview
LME Copper Prices: Trading in the high range of $11,000–13,000 per ton, with a record high of $13,943 per ton in May 2026.
Long-Term Trend: Entering a structural “Supercycle” uptrend, with prices forecasted to reach $17,000–17,600 per ton by 2030.
Price Drivers

Rising demand from Data Centers, AI, EVs, and Clean Energy
Production issues in major mines (Chile, Peru) and Chinese smelters
U.S. tariffs and stockpiling measures
Downside Risks

Geopolitical tensions (U.S.–Iran, Middle East) → Price Up
China’s slowdown in real estate and traditional industries → Price Down
Smelting bottlenecks in China → Price Up
 
Thailand Market Overview
Scrap Copper Prices (July 2026): Average 270–438 THB/kg

Bare Bright Copper: 395–438 THB/kg
White-Coated Copper: 270–406 THB/kg
Local Premium: $110–150 per ton → Smelters increasingly turn to recycled copper
Recycling Industry Trends

Rising demand for scrap copper to reduce costs and avoid import tariffs
Intense competition for high-grade scrap between smelters and local traders
Impact on Thai Businesses

Wire and electronics manufacturers must adjust strategies to cope with premiums
Recycling companies gain opportunities to add value through high-quality scrap
 
♻️ Copper Recycling
Key Properties: 100% recyclable without loss of quality; saves up to 85% energy compared to new smelting
Circular Economy Benefits:

Reduces carbon footprint → Supports Net Zero goals
Mitigates impact of China’s tariffs and quotas
Scrap Grades:

Bare Bright → Highest price
No.1/No.2 → Medium price
Old air-con pipes/motors → Lower price
White-coated copper → Lowest price
Main Process: Collect & sort → Shred → Smelt & refine → Cast
 
Price Outlook (2026–2030)
Short Term (2026): Volatile at $11,000–13,500 per ton due to tariffs and stockpiling
Mid Term (2027–2028): Correction to $10,000–11,000 per ton
Long Term (2029–2030): Structural deficit drives surge to $17,000–17,637 per ton
Premiums in Key Markets

China: $95–105 per ton
Europe: $315 per ton
USA: $335–350 per ton
 
⚙️ Supply Outlook
Global Supply

Declining output in Chile & Peru (Antofagasta down 9.5%)
Chinese smelters facing losses due to low TC/RC
Sulfuric acid shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz
Thailand Supply

Heavy reliance on imported copper cathodes → Higher costs from premiums
Domestic scrap copper becoming a critical supply source
Challenges: Cable theft and tax invoice restrictions
 
Summary
Global: Copper is transforming from a commodity into a strategic metal, with record highs expected by 2030
Thailand: Facing premium pressure, increasing reliance on recycled copper
Prices: Short-term volatility, mid-term correction, long-term surge
Supply: Tight worldwide; Thailand must expand recycling and manage costs
 
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