“Global Oil Prices Fall, Naphtha Recovers – The Turning Point for Energy and World Economy in H2 2026” SO OK TRADING: July 4, 2026
Global Oil Prices Fall, Naphtha Supply Recovers – Energy & Petrochemical Markets Shift Direction
SO OK TRADING: July 4, 2026
In early July 2026, the global energy market is at a major turning point. WTI crude has dropped to $68.78/barrel, while Brent crude is down to $71.94/barrel, the lowest levels since before the war. This is not just a correction — it is a “major reset” of geopolitics and the world economy.
Why Oil Prices Dropped
US–Iran peace talks → Strait of Hormuz reopened
OPEC+ boosts production → +3.3 million barrels/day
Morgan Stanley warns → Oversupply risks ahead
Russia: Crude Surplus, Refined Fuel Shortage
24 of 33 refineries damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes → massive loss of refining capacity
Russia forced to import gasoline from India, which refines Russian crude and sells it back
Rare Reversal: A top crude producer now importing refined fuel
Outlook Russia:
Continued refinery attacks → prolonged refined fuel crisis
Increasing reliance on China, with Ural crude discounts to compete against Iran
Iran: Back in the Global Market
US issued GL X, temporarily lifting sanctions for 60 days
40–67 million barrels of crude released into the market
Shift from discounted sales to premium pricing (+20%)
India and Japan resumed imports, while China lost its bargaining power
Outlook Iran:
Successful negotiations → oil stabilizes at $65–70/barrel
Failed negotiations → oil surges to $85–90/barrel
Oil Market Crossroads
Scenario 1: Lasting Peace → Stable prices, easing global inflation
Scenario 2: Sanctions Return → Price spike, Q3 global shock
️ Naphtha: Petrochemical Feedstock
Prices eased as Middle East crisis subsided → now $0.91–1.14/kg
Spread widened → lower costs, stronger margins for petrochemicals
Asian petrochemical plants recovering, though supply chains remain fragile
Outlook Naphtha:
Prices likely to continue downward with crude
Plastics and packaging industries benefit from reduced costs
Thailand: Golden Economic Opportunity
Lower global oil prices → reduced energy import costs
Private sector pushing government to adjust retail fuel pricing and Ft formula
Fuel Fund revenues rising → potential to cut diesel prices below 33 THB/liter
✨ Summary
The global energy market is entering a “new game” with both opportunities and risks:
Global Oil → Falling prices, but risk of sharp rebound if talks fail
Russia → Crude surplus but refined fuel shortage, reliant on India and China
Iran → Legal exports return, pressuring Russia and OPEC+
Naphtha → Lower prices, boosting petrochemical and plastics industries
Thailand → Direct benefits from reduced energy costs, a golden moment to restructure and strengthen competitiveness
✨ SO OK TRADING Your trusted partner in energy & industrial raw materials FAST • SHARP • RELIABLE www.sooktrading.com Facebook: SO OK TRADING
