“Q2/2026: Global Oil Waves Shift — From Peak to Stability, A New Signal for the Energy Market”

Global Oil Market June & Q2/2026: From Peak to Correction
SO OK TRADING | 1 JUNE 2026

From geopolitical crisis to market correction, global oil prices are showing signs of easing — and Thailand is reaping the benefits.

 
The Peak That Just Passed In April–May 2026, the global oil market was like a roller coaster. Crude oil (WTI & Brent) surged to $125–$132 per barrel amid Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery of global energy transport. All eyes were on the looming risk of a severe supply shock.

But as June begins, the situation has started to ease. Shipping routes reopened, supply from the U.S. and non‑OPEC+ producers flowed back into the system, and prices corrected to $90–$106 per barrel.

 
⛽ Thailand Benefits Immediately

Gasoline & Gasohol: Down by 0.70–1.40 THB/L → Gasohol 95 now at 42.90 THB/L
Diesel B7: Fixed at 40.70 THB/L by government and the Oil Fund to control transport costs and inflation
 
Global Financial Institutions’ Outlook

Goldman Sachs: Risks easing → prices may slide to $80 in Q4
HSBC: Concern over slow supply recovery → rebound possible to $110–$120
J.P. Morgan: Long‑term bearish → average $60, risk of $30 by 2027
Bank of America: Temporary deficit in H1 → correction in H2
 
⚙️ Key Drivers in June 1️⃣ OPEC+ increases output by 188,000 bpd for the third consecutive month 2️⃣ Tight monetary policies from the Fed & ECB 3️⃣ OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting on June 7 to set Q3 production quotas

 
Big Picture The global oil market is shifting from “crisis surge” to “correction mode.” Thailand’s retail fuel prices are easing, reducing household and transport burdens. Yet the mid‑ to long‑term outlook remains split:

Bearish: Oversupply could drive prices lower
Bullish: Fragile geopolitics may trigger another rebound
 
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