“Aluminum Boom! Global Prices Surge as LME Breaks $3,600 – Japan Premium Hits Decade High, 2026 Becomes Thailand’s Golden Year for Recycling”
“Aluminum Boom! LME Surges – Premium Hits Decade High, Unlocking Golden Opportunities for Recycling in 2026” By SO OK TRADING | May 12, 2026
Global Market Overview
In May 2026, the global aluminum market remains “the hottest in years.” Prices spiked to $3,632 per ton before correcting to $3,479–$3,525 per ton, still more than 45% higher year-on-year.
Middle East Supply Crisis: Attacks on smelters and shipping routes cut global production by nearly 9%.
EV & Clean Energy Demand: Aluminum demand continues to grow, expected to rise another 4–5% this year.
China’s Production Recovery: While output has resumed, it is insufficient to ease global tightness.
LME Price Situation
Latest Price (May 8, 2026): $3,502 per ton
Backwardation Structure: Spot price ($3,559) exceeds 3-month futures ($3,510), reflecting strong immediate demand.
Stock Levels: LME warehouse inventories have dropped to just 350,000 tons, a critically low level making prices highly sensitive to news.
MJP Premium (Japan Port Premium)
Q2 2026: $350–353 per ton, the highest in a decade
Q1 2026: $195 per ton, marking an 80% surge
Drivers: Supply diverted to Europe/US where premiums are higher, rising transport costs, and geopolitical risks pressuring Asia
Thailand Market Situation
TALON/TANN Wire: Purity 99–99.7%, ~80 THB/kg
Aluminum Plate/Extrusion: 60–87 THB/kg
UBC Cans: 45–62 THB/kg
Low-Grade Scrap: e.g., mesh or turnings, only 15–20 THB/kg
♻️ Recycling Trends in 2026
Closed Loop Recycling: “Can-to-Can” process reduces energy use by up to 95%
Green Aluminum: Recycled aluminum gains premium pricing and export advantages
Advanced Sorting Tech: XRF/LIBS systems enable precise grade separation, boosting scrap value to industrial levels
EPR Legislation: Producers will be responsible for product waste, with automatic return machines (RVMs) expected to expand
Price Outlook
Short Term (Q2–Q3 2026): Likely to consolidate within $3,400–$3,500 per ton if Middle East tensions ease, though demand remains strong
Mid Term (End of 2026): Average price forecast at $2,900–$3,000+, exceeding World Bank’s earlier projections
MJP Premium: Expected to remain above $300 per ton throughout the year
Thailand Market: High-grade scrap prices remain firm, supported by EV and Green Energy demand
Strategic Advice (as of May 12, 2026)
Sellers: Clean, well-sorted scrap maintains strong pricing; consider phased selling to reduce risk
Buyers/Manufacturers: Price corrections present good opportunities to stockpile
Investors: $3,450–$3,500 per ton is a key support level; holding above this range could trigger another rally
Conclusion
2026 is hailed as the “Golden Year of Recycling.” Aluminum scrap is no longer mere waste but a strategic raw material in the era of the green economy. Businesses that invest in technology and adapt to market trends will gain stronger bargaining power and global competitiveness.
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