“SO OK TRADING In-Depth Analysis: USD Weakness – THB Strength Reflecting Global Currency Outlook, August–September 2026” (August 21, 2026)

Dollar Weakness – Baht Strength: Global Currency Outlook
SO OK TRADING : August 22, 2026

 
The Downtrend of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar (USD) continues to face pressure from several key factors:

Fed rate cuts → Lower bond yields drive investors toward higher-yielding assets.
Rising U.S. public debt → Weakens fiscal confidence, prompting some countries to reduce U.S. bond holdings.
Global economic recovery → Capital flows into emerging markets and Europe, strengthening other currencies.
Trade and geopolitical risks → Investors shift to safe-haven assets such as gold.
 
Impact on Economy and Investment
Gold prices surge → A weaker USD makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Baht appreciation → From 35 baht/USD down to 31–32 baht/USD. Imports and overseas travel become cheaper, but exporters lose competitiveness.
Thai investors → May face FX losses even as U.S. equities rise.
 
Latest Baht Situation
Closing at 32.68 baht/USD on August 21, 2026 — strongest in two months.

Key drivers:

Weak U.S. economic data weighing on the dollar
Thailand’s Q2 GDP beating expectations → full-year forecast revised up to 2.2%
Strong gold and yen prices supporting Asian currencies
 
Baht Outlook Next Week (Aug 24–28)
Forecast range: 32.30–33.00 baht/USD (Kasikorn Research Center)

Key events to watch:

BOT meeting (Aug 26) → Expected to hold rates at 1.00%
Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole
U.S. PCE/Core PCE data and Thailand’s July export figures
 
Major Currency Outlook (Aug–Sep 2026)
USD (U.S. Dollar) → Bearish, DXY range 98.40–100.80
JPY (Japanese Yen) → Bullish, 155–160 yen/USD
EUR (Euro) → Sideways Up, 1.1400–1.1900 USD/EUR
GBP (British Pound) → Strong Bullish, 1.3200–1.3900 USD/GBP
CNY (Chinese Yuan) → Stable, slight appreciation, 6.65–6.75 CNY/USD
SGD (Singapore Dollar) → Bullish, 1.2800–1.2950
AUD (Australian Dollar) → Commodity-driven recovery, 0.6950–0.7100 USD/AUD
KRW (Korean Won) → Strongest appreciation, 1,410–1,440 KRW/USD
 
⚖️ BOJ vs ECB Interest Rate Outlook
BOJ (Japan) → Transitioning to “normalization” after deflation exit, expected to hike rates 1–2 more times this year.
ECB (Europe) → Focused on controlling energy-driven inflation, likely to raise rates to 2.50% in September.
 
Conclusion
The U.S. dollar remains weak, while major currencies strengthen on their own fundamentals — with GBP and KRW standing out. September’s cluster of central bank meetings (ECB, Fed, BoE) will be the decisive driver of global currency trends. Investors and businesses should manage FX risk and adjust portfolios in line with global developments.

 
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