“The War That Shakes the Global Economy: Middle East Time Bomb — Energy, Inflation, and Risk — From Crisis to Opportunity, Thai Business Perspectives at the World’s Turning Point”: SO OK TRADING: May 11, 2026

Middle East and Global Economic Situation (May 11, 2026) : SO OK TRADING

 
The war in the Middle East remains an “economic time bomb” that the entire world must closely watch. Every move shakes not only the battlefield but also oil prices, currencies, and the cost of living for people worldwide.

 
Frontlines and Security

United States vs Iran:

President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s peace proposal, pushing tensions back to their peak
Iran’s IRGC declared readiness to retaliate immediately if oil tankers are attacked in the Strait of Hormuz
The U.S. is attempting to open partial shipping routes to mitigate damage
 
Israel vs Lebanon:

Israel continues airstrikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon
Hezbollah used bomb-laden drones to attack Israeli bases, injuring reserve soldiers
Reports suggest negotiations in Washington next week, though Hezbollah opposes them
Gaza: reports of Israeli airstrikes and secret base construction to reinforce anti-Iran operations
 
⛽ Energy and Economy

Global Oil Prices:

Brent: ~$101.91/barrel
WTI: ~$92.96/barrel
The risk of closing the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical variable.

 
Impact on Thailand:

Exports to the Middle East down 57%
Thai baht weakened as the U.S. dollar strengthened
Bank of Thailand warns inflation may reach 5% in Q3
 
Naphtha:

Prices surged over 8% per week
Petrochemical plants in Thailand and parts of Asia forced to cut output or declare force majeure
Federation of Thai Industries proposed temporary import tax exemptions on plastic pellets and essential chemicals
 
Japan & South Korea — Naphtha Situation

Japan:

Successfully diversified import sources (U.S., Algeria, Peru)
Reserves sufficient until late 2026–2027
Consumer goods prices rose ~30%
South Korea:

Supply recovered to 90% of normal levels
Major plants resumed 65% operations
Government continues to ban naphtha exports, shifting imports to Russia
 
Global Economy — Stagflation Emerging Clearly

Global GDP: IMF cut to 3.1%
Global inflation: projected to reach 4.4% due to high oil and shipping costs
Financial markets: stocks and bonds falling simultaneously, reflecting fears that traditional tools may fail
Thailand: 2026 GDP revised down to 1.6%; inflation risk 5–6% if oil surpasses $135/barrel
 
The world is at a “turning point” of war and economy. If U.S.–Iran negotiations succeed, a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may occur by the end of this month. If they fail, the war could drag on, pushing the world into full-scale stagflation.

 
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