“UAE Exits OPEC — A Global Energy Turning Point, Oil Market Shaken, A New Game Begins” SO OK TRADING : April 29, 2026

UAE Exits OPEC: A Major Turning Point in the Global Oil Market and New Opportunities for Thailand
SO OK TRADING : April 29, 2026

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1, 2026, ending nearly 60 years of membership. The main reasons are the pursuit of independence in oil production and geopolitical tensions that pushed the UAE to choose its own path.

 
⏳ Impact on Oil Prices
Short-Term: Prices remain high and volatile

The announcement caused oil prices to drop briefly, but they remain above $110–111 per barrel.
The Hormuz Strait has been closed due to the Iran conflict, disrupting exports.
Geopolitical risks and Middle East wars continue to support high oil prices.
Mid to Long-Term: Oil prices trend downward

UAE plans to increase production from 3.2 → 5 million barrels/day by 2027, boosting global supply.
If Saudi Arabia and Iraq do not cut production, a price war may occur, leading to oversupply and falling prices.
OPEC loses control, and global oil prices face downward pressure.
 
️ UAE’s Strategy: Supplying Energy to the Global Market
$150 billion investment (5.5 trillion THB) to expand infrastructure and production technology.
Promotion of Murban crude, a high-quality, low-carbon oil grade.
Use of the Habshan–Fujairah (ADCOP) pipeline to bypass the Hormuz Strait, with a capacity of 1.5–1.8 million barrels/day.
Plans to expand pipeline capacity and sign direct contracts with key buyers such as China, India, and Thailand.
 
⚔️ Hormuz Strait Crisis (as of April 29, 2026)
The Hormuz Strait is nearly completely closed due to the Iran–US–Israel war.
Oil supply has dropped by 12–13 million barrels/day (IEA: largest disruption in history).
UAE can export only half of its production capacity via ADCOP.
High war risk insurance premiums keep end-user oil costs elevated.
 
Impact on the Global Economy: UAE’s Exit from OPEC
Oil prices expected to stabilize in the long term.
Energy supply supports global economic recovery after war, easing inflationary pressures.
Stimulates competition in clean energy technology.
UAE pushes Murban crude as a new benchmark, competing with Brent and WTI.
 
Positive Impact on Thailand: UAE’s Exit from OPEC
Energy security strengthened: Thailand already imports Murban crude, ensuring stable supply.
Better bargaining power: UAE may offer discounts and favorable terms to capture Asian markets.
Lower production and transport costs: Falling oil prices reduce transport and electricity costs, easing inflation.
Direct refinery benefits: Murban is the preferred crude grade for Thai refineries.
 
Retail Oil Price Outlook
May 2026: Prices unlikely to drop immediately due to war premiums and high transport costs.
Second half of 2026: If transport conditions improve toward normal levels, retail oil prices in Thailand may gradually decline.
 
Conclusion
UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC marks a historic turning point in the global oil market. It will lead to a new balance of lower prices, more secure supply, and long-term opportunities for Thailand’s economy.

 
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